by mantunes

I thought it was a strong gust of wind, but I knew something was wrong when the ceramics and glassware began to crackle. It is amazing that your brain can process the millions of stimuli assaulting your body and come to the exactly correct conclusion about what it all means within fractions of a second. 

It was an earthquake. A minor one—registering no more than 4.8 at its epicenter in the Raritan highlands of New Jersey—but strong enough to rattle those who experienced it. Without much thought, I ran out of the coffeeshop and into the middle of the street. In no fewer than two minutes, the entire apparatus of social media confirmed what I had just experienced. Aside from some poorly maintained buildings in the North Ward, no significant damage was done.

What happened on April 5, 2024 stands as an illuminating metaphor for the political environment of New Jersey over the last few months. What seemed only to be a strong gust of wind—the normal machinations of politics in New Jersey—evolved into something of seismic significance, one that left the state subtly but indelibly changed. The year is still in flux, but I strongly believe that historians of our little part of the world will study the events from September 2023 to November 2024 and mark them as a major turning point in New Jersey politics.

The strong gust of wind came in the form of U.S. Senator Robert Menendez’s second indictment in September 2023. While Senator Menendez was no stranger to allegations of corruption and glad-handing—having survived an attempt by federal prosecutors in 2015 to hold him to account for his tawdry relationship with a Florida-based ophthalmologist—the indictment still seemingly came out of nowhere. The lack of a conviction the first time around should have made any U.S. Attorney a bit wary from attempting a second go, even if for a completely separate set of facts. However, what prosecutors laid out in the 2023 indictment painted an even wilder (and more nefarious) picture of the Senator’s stubborn refusal to adhere to any sense of political decorum. It read like a political soap opera and could have been as entertaining as one if not for the sheer dread that comes when you realize that the third most powerful person in foreign affairs (after the President and the Secretary of State) was basically a shill for the authoritarian Egyptian government. This coming from a man who would not let you leave a room without letting you know how he felt about the regime that has reigned in Cuba since 1959.¹ 

Mendendez’s story is a tragic but albeit a very Jersey one. His story began as a self-styled reformer, fighting the Union City/Hudson County machine, then became mayor of that same city and launched a Congressional career of some note. Much like other Jersey politicians, the instrument of reform becomes instead the perpetrator of graft and corruption. While outwardly carrying the banner of Democratic policy including supporting gay marriage, supporing moderate anti-climate change regulation, advancing sufficient enough gun control legislation to earn an “F” from the National Rifle Association, and sponsoring significant reforms to America’s woefully inept immigration policy, he was also quick to advance the careers of those who remained unquestionably loyal to him and his family and was quick to exact revenge when he felt that his interests were being frustrated. (Just Google “Rob Menendez” and “Patty Schwartz,” and you’ll see a prime example of this.) 

What is remarkably tragic is Menendez’ refusal to gracefully exit the stage of political life, something he shares more in common with the former President than with the politicians on his side of the aisle and which threatens the ability of the seat to remain Democratic come this November. What is exceptionally pathetic is his menacing threat to remember who is supporting him in this hour in extremis. However, most concerning is how long it took for the other politicians in New Jersey to come to their senses and drop Menendez like the hot potato that he was. U.S. Senator and former Mayor of Newark, Cory Booker, took over a week before he distanced himself from Menendez. 

However, the importance of Menendez’s indictment lies not in the criminal charges itself but the chaos that ensued. Menendez, zapped of his moral authority and his ability to exert influence over the rest of the Jersey political establishment, seemed very unlikely to hold onto his seat—either in the primary or in the general election. Even his son, who successfully attained his own Congressional seat and who has remained quiet on the subject of his father, is facing a serious primary challenge from the Mayor of Hoboken, Ravi Bhalla. Layer on top of that the very real risk that if Menendez were to run unopposed he could lose in a general election to a centrist Republican, who could easily attack him on his corruption allegations. The United States Senate is divided equally, and with a hard map facing them in the fall of 2024, national Democrats finally took notice of Jersey and basically realized they could ill afford a rear flank attack on their hold of the body.

This created a bum rush for this vacant seat from the Democratic side. While many hinted at a potential run for the seat, only two candidates on the Democratic side could be seriously considered to be in contention: Andy Kim, current U.S. Representative for the 3rd District of New Jersey, and Tammy Murphy, current First Lady of the State of New Jersey. Kim and Murphy are relatively aligned politically, and their actual differences may be purely aesthetic. However, the aesthetics here matter. 

Murphy represents an older generation of New Jersey politics, coming out of the so-called White ethnic (that is, Italian, Irish, East European, or Jewish) suburbs of Northern, Western, and Southern Jersey that dominated politics in this state in the latter half of the 20th century, even though she is not technically of this background. Many of these communities are only two or three generations removed from an immigrant background and remain somewhat loyal to the political machines that brought these groups into power. They made alliances with the Black and Hispanic communities, alliances which blossomed into a strong baseline of Democratic control of the state. 

Kim, on the other hand, comes from an emergent political class, largely of professional East and South Asian Americans who have grown substantially in population and political clout in the last twenty to thirty years. These people are immigrants themselves or just one generation removed from their mother country. They have PhDs (or other post-graduate qualifications) and work in one of the many industries related to medicine or digital technology. They also have congregated along the med-tech corridor around New Brunswick, which (not by coincidence) is the part of the state that has seen the largest population and economic growth in the last decade.² They have almost no loyalty to the political machines—and frankly have not been well served by them or even excluded from office by them.

And that is exactly where the fault-line occurred. The rift then turned into a chasm between these two otherwise allied communities. The most-cherished possession of the county-level machines of New Jersey is the so-called “line” system, whereby candidates supported by county leadership get to appear on the first line of the ballot. This is an antiquated practice, reminiscent of an older era of smoke-filled rooms and quiet blackballing that the last 50 years of election law and election procedure advocacy has tried to undo. The system went relatively unchallenged, largely because it served the incumbent political order well. (Though, Eugene Mazo, a local law professor and election law advocate, deserves some credit for consistently questioning the practice in the legal and academic theaters.) 

Kim forcefully came out against the practice, calling it outdated, and wisely knowing that his campaign could seriously be hampered by the “line.” Murphy demurred. This is strange, given that Murphy is otherwise categorized as a reform-minded Democrat—assuming her political positions are pretty much the same as her husband’s. However, Murphy—despite what her supporters would say about her—suffered from an image of a carpetbagger, who had no political identity separate from the Governor but who could receive some of the incumbency advantages associated with him. She basically needed the “line” to offset that negative baggage. Unfortunately for Murphy, this meant that Kim looked more sincere and (importantly) more astute;  he knew which way the political winds were blowing. That, along with a couple of other losses at the county level and serious doubts about the primary and general election, brought a hard end to Murphy’s campaign.

Again, 2024 is a year in flux, and there is still a lot that could happen. But, the earthquake has been substantial.  A political dynasty has collapsed. The machines have lost the tool of control. A new political majority is emerging. The ground has permanently shifted.

Correction: An earlier version of this essay implied that the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey brought the charges against Senator Menendez. In fact, the trial is occurring in the Southern District of New York.

mantunes is a resident of Newark who writes about the city (and other things).

1. A note on the gold bars and the sheer mendacity of it all. Federal prosecutors allege that when they raided his home, they confiscated $100,000 worth in gold bars, along with large amounts of cash sewn into jackets bearing his name. (This all became fodder for late-night shows and comedy podcasts.) When asked about this Great Depression era approach to personal finance, rather than stonewall the journalists, Menendez thought it best to admit to having these valuables in his home for emergency use and out of fears over “the history of [his] family facing confiscation in Cuba.” Mind you, his parents were economic migrants who left well before the ‘59 Revolution, and he currently sits on the Senate Banking and Finance committees, which either (1) evinces a great disbelief in the financial system he partly oversees or (2) implies he knows something we don’t about American banking. That, or he is just a mendacious fuckwad. ↩︎
2. This is why I think the “Central Jersey” controversy exists. Those that deny that “Central Jersey” exists grew up in a time before this population emerged around the corridor between the Garden State Parkway and Route 1. For them, there is nothing there and could not possibly be anything there that is culturally distinct from the Shore or the northern/southern part of the state. ↩︎